What is the world’s best option to deal with the DPKR? OPS my bad! Let me re-phase that question because it is not the world’s problem but specifically it is the problem of S. Korea, Japan and the United States. Practice missiles fired by the DPKR have never been aimed towards the West but always to the East towards Japan and the United States. A cease-fire was signed July 27, 1953 which means that North and South Korea are still at war. Since that time there have been over 200 live gun-fire incidents between the two countries. The most recent August 2015 was an artillery exchange. In the July 2017 ICBM missile test Kim Jung-Un said that it was a gift to the QUOTE: “American Bastards”.
SCHOOL YARD BULLY: Every kid has had to deal with the school yard bully. But the real pain in the butt was the smart mouthed little toady that hung with the bully and was protected by the bully. In the past the Soviet Union has used Cuba as its toady and both China and Russia have used N. Korea as their toady. The school yard bully used the toady as a bargaining chip to see how much could be gotten away with before the teacher cracks down. So the bully is always in the background and pushes the little toady out front.
I hope that I have set the stage for part #2. As I said in part #1 I will frame this next part of the discussion around the term D.I.M.E. Diplomacy – Information – Military – Economics please remember that elements in diplomacy are both overt and covert.
DIPLOMACY:
There are 24 countries in the world that have diplomatic embassies in N. Korea. All are located within the diplomatic compound except for Russia, China and Pakistan because they have the largest embassies.
CHINA: China has always been a very populated country; even today China is about 19% of the world’s population. In recent years China has emerged from its cloistered existence. China was placed onto the world’s stage following the 1972 visit by President Nixon. Diplomacy with China began to change.
Remember my school yard bully toady concept. Why would China really want N. Korea to stop what it is doing? There is no gain for China. In diplomacy with China it must be made clear how allowing N. Korea to continue will actually harm China. China is concerned with commerce and protecting its border along the Amnok River and that is the key to diplomacy with China and N. Korea.
RUSSIA: Since the economic rise of China and the fall of the Soviet Union Russia has not had as much involvement with N. Korea. The DPKR Air Force is made up of Russian planes so this is the Russian military connection. With that said Russia would not want N. Korea to fall as it does provide a buffer from an American ally S. Korea along the Tumen River. Russia would feel the same about N. Korea and S. Korea becoming one as it felt about the fall of the Iron Curtain and many of the former communist bloc countries joining NATO. Russia has said that they will not allow the U.S. to attack N. Korea even if the UN sanctions it.
Russia as a school yard bully will want to keep N. Korea between them and the teacher.
U.N.: Many countries in the U.N. do not feel threatened by N. Korea. However, Europe should and Israel does because Iran is a key partner with N. Korea. They trade scientists and information about ICBM’s as well as nuclear technology. The U.S. will locate a missile defense at Redzikowo, Poland. The system is a deterrent to Iranian missiles. Obama removed the missiles from Poland because Russia did not like that the missiles were in Poland but Trump will put them back in place. The U.S. will wish to have the UN pass a resolution against N. Korea and its ICBM and nuke testing.
N. KOREA: Kim Jung-Un will keep his nukes and his power at any costs. Kim Jung-Un knows two things. First China has never abandoned the DPKR. Second in all confrontations with every President of the United States N. Korea has always prevailed and America has capitulated. To be clear N. Korea is operating on what has been – will continue to be & China will continue to support & they assume Trump will give in. So in the end N. Korea will have ICBM’s with nuclear warheads and America will give the DPKR something.
U.S.: America will have diplomat’s negotiating with various countries. There will be statements made publicly which may or may not be true and the same with statements made behind the scene to a State or individual that America knows will get that message back to N. Korea, Russia and China. President Trump just left the G20 and had meetings with China and Russia and I am certain that he explained to each what is acceptable or not. I will go out on a limb and say that Trump assured both that if it becomes necessary to use military force, America will not go beyond a certain point North of the 38th parallel. After the dust settles the US will return to the 38th.
INFORMATION:
Information between all of the players in the region will be exchanged. As I mentioned in part #1
In an effort for brevity I will make a general statement about information. There will be information put out via official channels. March 2017 Secretary Tillerson said, “Let me be very clear: The policy of strategic patience has ended.” The first President Bush used news outlets to send bad information to Saddam Husain during the buildup of Desert Storm. This administration will do the same. An example I heard is that Charles Krauthammer stated that perhaps we would give nuclear weapons to Japan and S. Korea.
China and Russia stated “We’ve agreed to promote our joint initiative, based on Russian step-by-step Korean settlement plan and Chinese ideas to simultaneously freeze North Korean nuclear and missile activities, and U.S. and South Korean joint military drills.” Vladimir Putin has warned the U.S. against attempting to intimidate North Korea after Pyongyang said it had successfully launched a nuclear-capable missile in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.
N. Korea will continue to make provocative threats and so will Russia and China. China and Russia will also offer solutions which will leave our allies in a weakened position but to the world will appear to be solid offers. China and Russia will make provocative protective statements regarding N. Korea to save face on the world stage. They must do that as it is part of the dance.
MILITARY:
U.S. We have done several staged ICBM intercepts in the past few months. We have deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile shield system to South Korea, which could shoot down incoming missiles from the North. We have staged several naval formations in waters off the Korean peninsula. We have conducted our normal annual military war-games with our allies in the area.
Trump met with China, Russia, Japan and S. Korea during the G20 summit and N. Korea would have been a hot topic.
N. KOREA: DPKR will continue to be provocative because that has gotten them status in the past. N. Korea loves being the shrimp amongst whales or playing the part of the mouse that roared. DPKR ICBM’s can reach into Europe so Europe needs to be concerned. In the past N. Korea got concessions from President Clinton, Bush and Obama so why not continue what has been successful.
S. KOREA: S. Korea will continue to re-position troops along the border and train with their allies. Their soldiers will train on the new THAAD system and other early warning systems. The U.S. will share intelligence and satellite images of N. Korea.
ECONOMICS:
CHINA: China is the largest trading partner with the DPKR and Pakistan is the 2nd largest. 43% of the exports from the DPKR are coal. Two large imports are refined petroleum and trucks. Speaking of trucks when you view the large military parades in N. Korea the vehicles look exactly like Chinese trucks because they are. America can offer to replace the coal traded with N. Korea at no cost but how long can that go on? Chinese banking could be a target but of the 5 largest banks in the world China owns 4 of them.
RUSSIA: Russia is not that big of a trading partner. Russia has natural resources in much larger quantity than N. Korea so does not import a lot. But N. Korea has Russian planes so Russia is an exporter to N. Korea.
EUROPE: If you look at pipelines from Russia across Europe it looks like blood veins. Trump signed a Natural Gas treaty with Poland while at the G20. The statement following the signing made it clear that America will and can export petroleum products and is a competitor to Russia. Besides petroleum products military equipment is the other large export of Russia but not to Europe. In effect the U.S. exports of petroleum products are a tourniquet on the Russian pipelines across Europe.
N. KOREA: We can place a blockade around N. Korea and we know from the Bush years that Kim Jung-Un will simply starve his people. Because America has a soft heart we sent food which was perceived as giving in to the demands. Clinton sent oil.
UNITED STATES: The world’s largest economy is the United States. Russia’s major export and largest income source is petroleum products. May 2017 Trump met with and praised our petroleum allies in the Middle East. I bet when Trump met with these leaders Trump discussed his intentions regarding petroleum exports to Europe in order to affect diplomacy with Russia. When Trump met with Putin I bet he explained how Russia could get back into the game but what needed to happen with regards to N. Korea without identifying red lines.
The United States can and should place sanctions on any country that has N. Korean workers in their country. N. Korea uses its people as laborers to other countries and receives payment for these laborers. Cheap labor is one of their exports.
NOTE: Iran and N. Korea are working closely together so Iran will watch closely how we handle N. Korea.
I apologize for the length of the N. Korean posts, but this is a very difficult topic and there is much more that can and should be said. This ends part #2 = part #3 to follow shortly.